A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
