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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a significant series of four votes, encompassing the presidency, national assembly, and local offices.

A Competitive Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are competing for the top office, among them ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were given approval to stand by the high court after being initially barred. Dologuélé finished second in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to tap into widespread discontent in a nation where violence remains a daily reality. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a similar number living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This represents an opportunity to acknowledge the significant progress of the country," noted a senior UN diplomat, adding that obstacles persist.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to secure another term. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition toppled the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent three-year interim, his perceived neutrality from the main militias fueled his second-round victory in 2016.

Security Concerns and Logistical Hurdles

There are fears that supply-chain issues and insecurity could mar the vote, particularly in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is providing protection and logistical support that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Further issues include the electoral roll being made available only digitally, a significant barrier in a nation with scarce online access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 constitutional referendum that scrapped term limits and extended mandates—would entail greater influence for outside interests.

The president has put faith in the Russian mercenary group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Recent reports have claimed the administration removed its own soldiers from a internationally financed training centre to accommodate a Rwandan agricultural project. A pro-opposition commentary accused the leadership of being "intent on sell off the country piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with armed factions offering hope of calm, the election moves forward under a cloud of doubt and external rivalry.