Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average number of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government figures. But, security experts have advised that homicide data could fail to signal improved countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military operations to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times higher than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

But, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may obscure periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.