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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.